16.5.1.1. RISK OF CHANGES IN THE PRICES OF REFINERY AND PETROCHEMICAL PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS

Risk of changes in the prices of refineryand petrochemical products and raw materials

Type of hedged raw material/product 

Unit of measure 

31/12/2020 

31/12/2019 

Crude oil  

bbl 

 30,247,180  

 26,370,730  

Diesel 

t 

 91,250  

 130,280  

Heating oil  

t 

 4,000  

 43,793  

Gas 

gj 

 9,722,500  

 6,420,000  

Other 

t 

 74,000  

 53,000  

Sensitivity analysis for changes in pricesof products and raw materials

Analysis of the influence of changes in the carrying amount of financial instruments on result before tax and hedging reserve to a hypothetical change in prices of products and raw materials:

 

 

 

Assumed variations 

Influence on result before tax 

Influence on hedging reserve 

Total 

 

2020 

 

 

2019 

 

2020 

2019 

2020 

2019 

2020 

2019 

Increase of prices 

Increase of prices 

Total influence 

Crude oil USD/bbl; CAD/bbl 

6% 

32% 

 (51) 

 (415) 

 5  

 (96) 

 (46) 

 (511) 

Diesel USD/t 

6% 

26% 

 -  

 -  

 (9) 

 (47) 

 (9) 

 (47) 

Gasoline USD/t 

3% 

31% 

 -  

 -  

 (2) 

 (23) 

 (2) 

 (23) 

Heating oil USD/t 

18% 

- 

 -  

 -  

 (1) 

 24  

 (1) 

 24  

Gas CAD/Gj 

6% 

27% 

 4  

 11  

 -  

 -  

 4  

 11  

JET fuel USD/t 

- 

25% 

 -  

 -  

 -  

 (2) 

 -  

 (2) 

 

 

 

 (47) 

 (404) 

 (7) 

 (144) 

 (54) 

 (548) 

At the same percentage price decrease, the sensitive analysis states variations of the same value as in the above table but with the opposite sign.

Applied for the sensitivity analysis of commodity risk hedging instruments variations of crude oil, gas and products prices were calculated based on their historical volatility in 2019. In connection with the ongoing pandemic COVID-19 having a high impact on the volatility of oil prices and refinery products, the sensitivity analysis for 2020 was based on the price levels in the financial plan for next year.

The influence of changes in prices was presented on annual basis.

In case of derivatives, the influence of crude oil, gas and products prices variations on fair value were examined at constant level of currency rates.

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