16.5.1.1. RISK OF CHANGES IN THE PRICES OF REFINERY AND PETROCHEMICAL PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS
Risk of changes in the prices of refineryand petrochemical products and raw materials
Type of hedged raw material/product |
Unit of measure |
31/12/2020 |
31/12/2019 |
Crude oil |
bbl |
30,247,180 |
26,370,730 |
Diesel |
t |
91,250 |
130,280 |
Heating oil |
t |
4,000 |
43,793 |
Gas |
gj |
9,722,500 |
6,420,000 |
Other |
t |
74,000 |
53,000 |
Sensitivity analysis for changes in pricesof products and raw materials
Analysis of the influence of changes in the carrying amount of financial instruments on result before tax and hedging reserve to a hypothetical change in prices of products and raw materials:
|
Assumed variations |
Influence on result before tax |
Influence on hedging reserve |
Total |
||||
2020
|
2019
|
2020 |
2019 |
2020 |
2019 |
2020 |
2019 |
|
Increase of prices |
Increase of prices |
Total influence |
||||||
Crude oil USD/bbl; CAD/bbl |
6% |
32% |
(51) |
(415) |
5 |
(96) |
(46) |
(511) |
Diesel USD/t |
6% |
26% |
- |
- |
(9) |
(47) |
(9) |
(47) |
Gasoline USD/t |
3% |
31% |
- |
- |
(2) |
(23) |
(2) |
(23) |
Heating oil USD/t |
18% |
- |
- |
- |
(1) |
24 |
(1) |
24 |
Gas CAD/Gj |
6% |
27% |
4 |
11 |
- |
- |
4 |
11 |
JET fuel USD/t |
- |
25% |
- |
- |
- |
(2) |
- |
(2) |
|
|
|
(47) |
(404) |
(7) |
(144) |
(54) |
(548) |
At the same percentage price decrease, the sensitive analysis states variations of the same value as in the above table but with the opposite sign.
Applied for the sensitivity analysis of commodity risk hedging instruments variations of crude oil, gas and products prices were calculated based on their historical volatility in 2019. In connection with the ongoing pandemic COVID-19 having a high impact on the volatility of oil prices and refinery products, the sensitivity analysis for 2020 was based on the price levels in the financial plan for next year.
The influence of changes in prices was presented on annual basis.
In case of derivatives, the influence of crude oil, gas and products prices variations on fair value were examined at constant level of currency rates.